The number of people in the UK with sight loss is set to increase dramatically. It’s predicted that by 2050, more than four million people will be living with sight loss in the UK.
This article covers the basis for future sight loss projections, what data is available in the Sight Loss Data Tool, and how it might be useful in your work.
Background
RNIB worked with Deloitte Access Economics to produce two reports that included estimates on the prevalence of sight loss in the UK. These publications contain systematic reviews of the available evidence on how common sight loss was in the UK.
There is no single source of research that can reliably estimate the prevalence of sight loss in the UK. Instead, the model used evidence from a range of different studies. Often these individual studies focus on specific demographics (e.g. older people, children, ethnic minorities) or specific eye conditions (e.g. glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration).
We then apply these prevalence estimates to sub-national population projections published by the relevant statistical agencies in each devolved nation.
Definition
Someone is considered to be living with sight loss if their visual acuity is worse than 6/12 in the better seeing eye.
This would include:
- people who are registered blind or partially sighted
- people whose vision is better than the levels that qualify for registration
- people who are awaiting or having treatment such as eye injections, laser treatment or surgery that may improve their sight
- people whose sight loss could be improved by wearing correctly prescribed glasses or contact lenses.
But it does not include:
- people who self-report having long-term health condition related to their vision that has an impact on daily life.
- people who have corrected vision with lenses or glasses, but who have difficulty seeing then they aren’t wearing them.
Sight loss projections
The projected increase in the number of people living with sight loss is due to the ageing UK population.
There will be a significant increase in the number of older people in the UK over the next 25 years. This is largely attributable to the large number of the population who were born in the 1950s and 1960s moving into older age bands where sight loss is more prevalent. Although life expectancy has risen over recent decades, improvements have slowed significantly since the early 2010s.
These projections are best estimates. The underlying increase in the number of people living with sight loss is being driven by an ageing population, and age-related health conditions will increase as a result.
These projections assume that the underlying prevalence of sight loss will stay the same. New treatments could significantly change things – for example, reducing the number of people would be living with sight loss.
However, changes in risk factors (e.g. increase in diabetes) or changes in the quality of care (e.g. more avoidable sight loss due to delays in treatment) that could mean that more people will be living with sight loss.
Using the data in SLDT
We have included sight loss prevalence estimates for 2026 and 2036, and a metric on the percentage change over this time period.
The key purpose of these estimates is to help demonstrate population need at a local level. And in order to further support this, we’ve broken these estimates down by either age band or severity, depending on what is most appropriate for your needs.
Would additional projections – such as 5-year or 20-year estimates – be useful for your planning? We’d love your feedback.